A Multibagger at the Inflection Point, Trading at 12x EV/EBITDA
Twenty years of structural demand, capacity constraints and pricing power
Hi, Investor! 👋🏼
Over the past several months, we published four Stock Ideas to Jimmy’s Journal Premium subscribers, separate from my personal portfolio of high-quality companies.
In chronological order of publication, those four ideas have delivered +31%, +220%, +48%, and -29%.
A subscriber who built an equal-weighted portfolio across all four, entering on the dates each thesis went out, would be sitting on a +53.7% cumulative return today.
A result that, by itself, would already justify the cost of the annual subscription.
The S&P 500 returned +9.1% over the same period.
But the returns are not what I want to talk about today.
I want to talk about why they happened - and what the next one looks like.
When we look at the names that worked, three things keep showing up.
They are high-quality businesses with durable competitive positions.
They sit at market capitalizations small enough that the largest sell-side desks have not built real conviction around them.
And each one has at least one clear vector for value creation that the market is still mispricing:
New end-markets opening up.
Structural margin expansion.
The inflection from a heavy investment cycle into free cash flow generation.
The next idea on the list checks every one of those boxes.
In my view, it is the cleanest public-market exposure to a multi-decade super-cycle, in an industry where structural demand, capacity constraints, and pricing power are aligned for the better part of a decade.
All of it with:
EPS growth of +18-20% in 2026
Margin expansion across the business
Significant deleveraging already underway
Trading at a 40% discount to peers
A high-quality compounder, in a structurally tightening industry, at a meaningful discount - before the sell-side wakes up.
The full thesis - company and industry overview, competitive moat, financials, SOTP valuation (with price target), and the asymmetry I’m seeing - goes out to Jimmy’s Journal Premium subscribers today.
I don't publish ideas like this often. The next time the setup looks this clean, I don't know.
Click the link below to access the full investment thesis.
We’re talking about: