This is a powerful breakdown—confirmation bias and overconfidence especially feel like silent killers in live markets. How do you personally train yourself to notice when one of these is creeping in mid-trade? Would love to hear if you use any frameworks or prompts to de-bias in real time.
In my opinion, there are no better alternatives than: i) writing everything down – investment thesis, risks, competitive advantages, and alignment points, and ii) not clicking on the buy button the same day. The second one is especially powerful, as it ensures the buying decision isn’t impulsive.
For confirmation bias, I like to research contrarian theses to mine - whether on Google, Substack, Seeking Alpha, or even with some sell-side analysts > "Why are you short? What could go wrong, in your opinion?" These are always questions I seek answers to from those thinking differently than I am. After that, there are only two paths > either you reinforce your conviction or discard the thesis.
This is a powerful breakdown—confirmation bias and overconfidence especially feel like silent killers in live markets. How do you personally train yourself to notice when one of these is creeping in mid-trade? Would love to hear if you use any frameworks or prompts to de-bias in real time.
In my opinion, there are no better alternatives than: i) writing everything down – investment thesis, risks, competitive advantages, and alignment points, and ii) not clicking on the buy button the same day. The second one is especially powerful, as it ensures the buying decision isn’t impulsive.
For confirmation bias, I like to research contrarian theses to mine - whether on Google, Substack, Seeking Alpha, or even with some sell-side analysts > "Why are you short? What could go wrong, in your opinion?" These are always questions I seek answers to from those thinking differently than I am. After that, there are only two paths > either you reinforce your conviction or discard the thesis.
Excellent!
Thank you, Willem!!!
Awesome!!
Thanks a lot, Fraser! Glad you liked it.
Great read thanks!
Thank you, Gaming!!!